The Pacific lobe of the sub-tropical high now dominates the Southwest with very hot and dry conditions this morning. The 500 mb analysis for 12 UTC this morning (above from SPC) shows very warm (hot) temperatures over all the Southwest of -2 to -3 C, which is very nasty. The morning TWC plot below shows the warm air and only about 10 mm of PW.
MIMIC total precipitable water analysis (TPW - above for 12 UTC this morning) shows the dry conditions over the Southwest and northern Mexico. There is a small region with high PW pushed far south - from end of Baja down to Cabo Corrientes. Detected CG flashes (below, from Atmo and Vaisala) for 12-hours ending at 06 UTC last night (20 June) reflect this sorry state of affairs.
Down at bottom is the operational GFS forecast of total precipitation for the period ending at 06 UTC on the last day of June. Situation about typical now, with hopes for the real monsoon to begin first week or so of July - but the short-lived burst was a great relief from the heat and drought that prevailed since February; now just a sweet memory.
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