Sunday, June 10, 2018

Bud Forecast To Take More Northerly Path

Now a look to the tropics. The MIMIC TPW analysis for 1600 UTC this morning is above - subtropical moisture has moved north across the southern 2/3rds of the GoC, as Aletta moves westward from 115 degrees west. Bud is currently south-southwest of Cabo Corrientes.

The GEFS plumes for PW (below from 06 UTC runs) for TUS forecast drying today and tomorrow, but then a strong push of low-level moisture from the GoC. The forecast increases PW from around 8 mm on Monday to values over 30 mm on the 15th and 16th (next Friday and Saturday). The first substantial increase is likely related to Aletta while the second push is associated with Bud.

The visible image above is from 9:30 am MST - it appears that Bud has become a hurricane. The mid-morning NHC forecast keeps max sustained winds with Bud at 95 kts or lower. The track forecast indicates Bud will move toward southern Baja, which increases thunderstorm chances here considerably.

A 12 UTC 500 mb analysis (from University of Wyoming weather page) shows that the subtropical anticyclone has shifted to northeastern Mexico, allowing Bud to move northward in the break between the Mexican and East Pacific lobes of the anticyclone. The 06 UTC forecast of total precipitation (below from WRF-GFS) from midnight last night through 7:00 am on the 16th reflects the unusual push of subtropical moisture into Arizona. I'm certainly hoping that this forecast verifies, although the metro Tucson donut hole is evident.

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