Photo taken from house yesterday about 2:00 pm MST of developing thunderstorm off to the east-southeast. Note the nice little pileus atop one of the building towers. Tucson NWS composite radar at nearly same time indicates that the storm is just west of the county line, on south end of Rincons, while other storm activity is far off to the east. Second below shows detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) for yesterday afternoon through 1:00 am this morning.
After five days the GEFS members are forecasting a considerable increase in PW - the increase at TUS is gradual through the period. However, the forecast for Yuma (above from 06 UTC) is very interesting - most of members and the ensemble mean forecast of PW indicate a distinct moisture surge, which would be the first of the summer. The push of low-level moisture up the GoM is apparently triggered by Hurricane Aletta (IR image below from 1330 UTC this morning) even though the forecast NHC track seems too far south and west to trigger such an event. Will be very interesting to watch things evolve during next seven or eight days.
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