Saturday, June 16, 2018

Finally Some Rain!!!!!!

Composite radar from NWS indicates a large area of showers and some thunderstorms moving into metro area from the southwest at 6:00 am MST this morning.

Rainfall here at house has gone as per: yesterday though 5:00 pm MST just some spits and sputters and a Trace; but from 5:00 pm to 5:00 am we recorded 0.23" - the most rain in gauge since middle of February! The rain began again a bit after 5:00 am and continues now. The plot of detected CG flashes below (from Atmo and Vaisala) shows 24-hours ending at 6:00 am this morning - purples to red are recent, while greens were yesterday afternoon.

The Alert network at 6:00 am this morning (north half above and south below) indicates 100% coverage (just as the models have been forecasting), with some amounts around the network over half an inch. What a wonderful event for mid-June - thanks to once hurricane Bud and the influx of moisture it triggered. The PW this am is about double the average amount for this date.

The meteorological setting is much as the WRF forecasts indicated yesterday - westerly trough moving across Arizona interacting with residual low-level moisture from Bud. The synoptic setting (12 UTC 500 mb analysis above from SPC) with the trough and westerly flow regime is distinctly "non-monsoonal" today. The morning sounding from TWC (below - also from SPC) indicates moderate CAPE, with westerly winds through troposphere from 700 mb up, and residual moisture from Bud extends up to 500 mb. The setting today is very much like a Fall transitional pattern. The evolution of the cold middle-level pocket of air coming by and any local heating that might occur will determine how intense local thunderstorms are - the morning sounding looks a bit like a wet microburst setting - we shall watch and see!

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