Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Hurricane Bud A Category 4 Storm

Hurricane Bud has also become a Cat 4 storm this morning (sustained winds at 115 kt). Visible image above is from 1330 UTC and below is this morning's NHC forecast for the track of Bud - NHC brings the remnants of Bud directly at us.

Detected CG flashes in Mexico (from Atmo and Vaisala) inched northward yesterday afternoon (above is 12-hours ending at 05 UTC last night). First time this summer that I've seen thunderstorms occurring along the coast of the GoC. MIMIC TPW from 12 UTC (below)shows high PW once again reaching up the GoC to 30 degrees north.

Some forecast plumes shown here from the 06 UTC GEFS forecasts. Plumes for Yuma above are for PW, with very high max occurring on Friday the 15th. Below is for QPF at TUS - significant precipitation event forecast by 100% of the members, but with very large range of amounts forecast here. The same is true for Douglas - second below.

Finally a look at last night's 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast for total rainfall through 5:00 am MST on Sunday (on 5.4 grid). This would certainly be an amazing event for Arizona were this forecast to verify. However, those who have been here for years know that precipitation associated with decaying TSs is often fickle - dominant forecast failures seem to end up with little or no rainfall even though large amounts were forecast.

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