A slow-moving 500 mb trough moves into the West by the weekend - above is GEFS average 500 mb forecast (from 00 UTC last evening) for 12 UTC on 30 June (Saturday). This opens up the Southwest to flow from low-latitudes and allows higher PW to return. The return of moisture will be helped by outflows from convective systems over northern Mexico. The forecast below of PW is from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo and is valid at 6:00 am MST on Saturday. The model forecasts a distinct Gulf Surge at that time.
The 00 UTC run of the WRF-GFS (on 5.4 km grid) forecast of total precipitation through 5:00 pm on July 3rd is below. Most rainfall is forecast for high elevations, indicating an increased threat for dry lightning over many lower-elevation parts of southeast Arizona.
At the same time as all of this, the Eastern Pacific tropics continue to be quite active - second below is five-day outlook from NHC this morning.
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