Yesterday's west winds (south of Great Basin short wave) knocked PW down to very low values. Time series of GPS PW from Atmo (above ending around 7:00 am MST) shows the drop.
The drying pushed thunderstorm activity far eastward and southward - plot below shows detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) for 12-hours ending at 06 UTC last night.
This morning Hurricane Bud is a level 3 storm that is moving northwestward (above visible image from 7:00 am). The forecast track from NHC this morning (below) continues to move Bud to south end of Baja by Saturday. At bottom is 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of PW valid at noon on Friday, indicating a rather classic Gulf surge. After Saturday the models diverge with some runs holding PW high and others forecasting rapid drying Sunday and beyond.
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