Monday, June 11, 2018

Brief Update As New Week Begins

Yesterday's west winds (south of Great Basin short wave) knocked PW down to very low values. Time series of GPS PW from Atmo (above ending around 7:00 am MST) shows the drop.

The drying pushed thunderstorm activity far eastward and southward - plot below shows detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) for 12-hours ending at 06 UTC last night.

This morning Hurricane Bud is a level 3 storm that is moving northwestward (above visible image from 7:00 am). The forecast track from NHC this morning (below) continues to move Bud to south end of Baja by Saturday. At bottom is 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast of PW valid at noon on Friday, indicating a rather classic Gulf surge. After Saturday the models diverge with some runs holding PW high and others forecasting rapid drying Sunday and beyond.

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