Mostly middle clouds overhead this morning.
Plot of detected CG flashes (above - from Atmo and Vaisala) is for 24-hours ending at 0830 UTC this early morning. Very little thunderstorm activity across all of southeastern Arizona yesterday, as main activity was in a band from Sonora northward across western Arizona. There were a couple of severe wind reports with this band.
Precipitation (below) was extremely limited across the ALERT network with only 9 reports of rainfall, and the entire metro area very suppressed. Still waiting for meaningful rain in my gauge.
The 500 mb pattern (above) remains similar to yesterday, but with weak trough from from near Four Corners to northern Baja that will shift a bit eastward during the day today. The morning TWC sounding (below) is also very similar to yesterday's.
The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecasts a significant increase in storm activity today over eastern Pima and Santa Cruz Counties (radar echoes above forecast for 5:30 pm this afternoon). Rain is also forecast by the model across Tucson Metro, with a tenth of an inch at the airport (below for period ending at midnight tonight).
The NWS morning forecast is shown second below, with 60 percent POPs indicated for the airport this afternoon.
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