Middle clouds over the metro area at about 7:30 am MST this morning.
The current 500 mb analysis (below) shows Arizona in the zone between the large anticyclone over US and a strong trough over the west coast.
This morning's TWC/TUS sounding plot (above) shows low levels remaining dry and a lack of CAPE. Thus, if storms are to develop this afternoon and evening, there needs to be a considerable increase in low-level moisture. The forecast sounding (below - from the 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo) indicates a significant increase (surface dewpoint increasing from around 32 F to the middle 50s F), along with development of some CAPE.
Plumes from the 06 UTC GEFS forecasts (above PW at airport and below QPF at airport) show a strong increase in PW during the day today, with showers through much of tonight and Saturday.
Forecast radar echoes above from the WRF run cover most of the metro area at 7:00 pm this evening.
Below is the morning forecast from the NWS Forecast Office - putting the most significant POPs for the airport during the day Saturday, as per the various model forecasts shown above. Hoping to see the first rain in the gauge after nearly three, totally dry months.
No comments:
Post a Comment