Rains Close By Yesterday

View of Catalinas yesterday afternoon at a bit before 3:00 pm MST - thunderstorms stayed mostly to east and south of metro area.

ALERT plots for 24-hours ending at 7:00 am this morning. Cluster of reports from sites near Redington Pass and also scattered reports across south half of network, with most reports being quite light. Nothing here at the house except for a couple of gusty outflows. Airport reported thunder and Trace with gusts to 36 mph during the afternoon. All-in-all a pretty bland day with respect to the forecasts for an active day (see previous post).

Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 1400 UTC (7:00 am) this morning (above, from Atmo and Visala) shows the storm activity from yesterday afternoon, as well as some unusual, early morning storms near Yuma - thunderstorms are even occurring over the south part of California this morning!

The morning 500 mb analysis (above) shows a weak closed low along California coast and a trough eastward across Arizona. The large anticyclone over central US has no well-defined circulation center this morning.

The morning TWC/TUS sounding plot (below) has moistened considerably  below 700 mb compared to yesterday (see previous post) and there is a fair amount of CAPE. Winds are light and variable below 400 mb, so there is no distinct steering flow.

The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast verified reasonably well for Pima County yesterday, and I grabbed its forecast of precipitation through midnight - second below. Even though the sounding looks favorable, the model again keeps the storm activity fairly restricted and mostly in Cochise County. I would expect a more active day, especially over and near the mountains - time will tell.