Nice morning here in Tucson with a bit of cloudiness to the east and northeast.
Storm activity stayed east of the metro area yesterday, as per the plot of detected CG flashes (below - from Atmo and Vaisala) through 0803 UTC early this morning. The WRF precipitation forecast shown in yesterday's post verified quite well, even picking up the activity activity at the south end of the Rincons. Precipitation reports were mostly in Cochise County. There were two ALERT sites with 0.04" in the southeast corner of the network. Most precipitation reported, that I found, was at Safford with 0.31".
This morning's TWC sounding plot (above) shows dry low-levels and no CAPE. However, models are forecasting increased moisture and PW moving northward into southeast Arizona late today into tomorrow. Precipitation forecasts from the 1200 UTC run of the WRF-RR indicate some rainfall today - mostly east to south of our area (below).
However, tomorrow a weak short-wave at 500 mb is forecast to move northward across Arizona - forecast above valid at 5:00 pm MST tomorrow afternoon is from the 06 UTC run of the GFS. The short-wave helps spread the forecast rainfall to the west, covering almost all of Pima county by midnight tomorrow (below from same WRF-RR run at Atmo run).
Ground here is bone dry and I have to water every other day to keep plants going. Really hoping for a meaningful rainfall soon.
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