Wednesday, June 15, 2022

Showers By Weekend?

Skies this morning (above), while not pristine, are considerably cleaner than they were yesterday afternoon (bottom).

While PW is VERY low this morning, the 06 UTC GEFS forecasts a very rapid increase beginning tonight - see forecast plumes above. The models plumes for precipitation indicate precipitation at the airport,  mainly on Saturday - note the very large range of amounts forecast by the ensemble members.

In contrast, the 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast above (valid through noon on Sunday) keeps the band of rainfall east of us, with no rain at the airport. So, considerable variance among the forecasts. This morning's forecast for the airport, from the NWS, is shown below.

Further south, Tropical Storm Blas is off the southwestern coast of Mexico. The NHC forecasts Blas to become a hurricane this morning, and to move away from land toward the west-northwest.

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