Vivid pre-sunrise colors over the Rincons at 6:00 am MST this morning.
It was quite active over much of eastern Pima County yesterday, as per plot of detected CG flashes through 0703 UTC this morning (above - from Atmo and Vaisala). However, note the donut hole, much as forecast by yesterday's WRF (see previous post).
ALERT data (above and below) for 24 hours ending at 7:00 am this morning. There were some very heavy amounts in the southwestern to western parts of the network.
Here at the house we had thunder, along with a brief shower that left 0.02" in the rain gauge.
This morning we are in the northern ridge of an anticyclone that is centered to the south over Sonora (see 500 mb chart above). Temperatures have cooled to minus 7 C, which should be favorable for storms. However, the morning sounding (below) indicates reduced CAPE, with the unfavorable west-southwest winds continuing.
The 06 UTC WRF-GFS forecast (above from Atmo) indicates a very down day for Pima County. However, the graphic from the NWS webpage (below) shows 30 percent POPs for our area. The NWS extended forecast indicates 20 to 30 percent POPs every day through Sunday, then some higher POPs for the start of next week.
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