View toward Rincons at 6:15 am this morning. Plot of detected CG flashes (below, from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24 hours ending at 0803z this morning, shows the infamous donut hole over metro Tucson (which was well forecast by yesterday's WRF - see previous post).
Rainfall from ALERT network (above and below) for 24 hours ending at 7:00 am MST shows storms occurred mostly on higher elevations and also scattered here and there at lower elevations. There may have been thunder here, but again no rain.
The 500 mb analysis (aove - note that TWC/TUS is missing for second day) shows a very weak trough arcing from the LA Basin across southwest Arizona and into northwestern Mexico. This feature will move slowly northward across Arizona today and tomorrow, It may help support more thunderstorm activity - note the -9 C temperature at Empalme.
Morning forecast from the NWS (above) keeps POPs for the airport high Monday and Tuesday, but only 20 percent today. The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast (below, through 6:00 am tomorrow) keeps eastern Pima County dry, except for mountain storms.
No comments:
Post a Comment