Tuesday, August 08, 2023

Better Chances Today


Pre-sunrise view of the Catalinas early this morning.


There were only two small areas with CG flashes yesterday - as per plot of detected flashes over eastern Pima County (above, from Atmo and Vaisala). There was widespread storm activity over Cochise county around midnight.

There were fewer than 10 ALERT sites with rainfall yesterday, and the metro area was completely rain-free; as was forecast by yesterday's WRF (see previous post).



Today's TWC sounding (above) continues with substantial CAPE and with little cap. Winds aloft are westerly, which is not good direction for this part of town. Shown below are the NWS POPs for today, showing high values for this part of Pima County. Second below shows the 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast of precipitation through noon tomorrow. Note the donut hole over the northern part of the metro area. No rain here at house yet in August.


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