Chaotic skies over the metro region this morning at 7:20 am MST.
Plot of detected CG flashes (above, from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24 hours ending at 0803 UTC this early morning. ALERT observations for 24 hours ending at 0730 am (below) shows a cluster of rainfall from the northeast Santa Rita mountains to around Green Valley. The airport and DM both observed thunder, but with no rainfall. I did not hear any thunder here.
The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (above) appears very favorable for storms today: large CAPE, high PW of 1.81", and only a slight cap to overcome. However, steering winds are southwesterly, which are usually not favorable for storms, especially in this part of the metro area.
The 12 UTC WRF-RR forecast precipitation through noon tomorrow (above) indicates almost no rainfall across all of eastern Pima County. The more optimistic NWS morning forecast (below) indicates 30 to 50 percent POPS for each period through Wednesday.
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