View of Rincons at about 5:30 am MST this morning.
Plot of detected CG flashes (above, from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24 hours shows a few flashes in eastern Pima County, mostly avoiding the metro area. ALERT data below show light rainfall amounts scattered here and there across the network.
At 500 mb this morning (above from SPC) the large anticycloneappears to be centered along the Colorado - New mexico border. There was again no sounding from TWC/TUS, and I suspect that there will be a significant outage, although there's been no explanation on NWS webpage.
The forecast from the 12 UTC WRF-RR (above) shows scattered light precipitation across Pima County through 6:00 am tomorrow morning (some other WRF runs forecast heavier amounts over our area).The morning forecast from the NWS (below) continues to indicate POPs of 30 to 50 percent for the airport through Wednesday night.
Looking south, the NHC morning outlook for seven days (above) indicates that development is very likely off the southern coast of Mexico, wth movement toward the northwest. The GFS forecast for thickness values at seven days (below) shows the TS/hurricane west of northern Baja - considerably faster than the NHC outlook.
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