The two analyses above (top is 700 mb and bottom is 500 mb) show isotherms that depict the extremely hot plume of middle-level air affecting much of the U.S. this morning at 1200 UTC. The most extreme continental tropical type air is centered over New Mexico and the northern Mexican Plateau, but very hot air extends back to the coast and out over the eastern Pacific (as well as far out to the east across the central and southern Plains - indicating that both elevated boundary-layer heating and large-scale subsidence have been working in concert to produce this air mass.---------------------------------------------------
The NAM forecast this morning somehow manages to predict convection and precipitation along the Arizona/New Mexico border areas by 5 pm MST Monday afternoon. At this time it is not clear where the moisture, or some middle-level cooling, would come from. However, it is possible that by Monday afternoon some cooler air could come around the east side of the 500 mb anticyclone. Any convection that develops during next couple of days will have bases around 500 mb, and some dry microbursts could result. So, will be keeping a careful watch on how the current blast-furnace environment evolves over the next couple of days.
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