Two of the forecasts produced by the 0000 UTC run of the NAM are shown above. The top panel is 12-hour rainfall ending at 1200 UTC this morning. The bottom panel is the NAM simulated radar reflectivity valid at 1200 UTC, 10 June 2010. The NAM forecast a warm frontal type band of precipitation to the north of the zone of heavy activity. It also kept strong convection through the night in the Black Hills area of South Dakota. So, the model was not able to capture the evolution of the significant convective system of the early morning hours today - indicating there's still progress that can be made. A quick look at the NAM seems to indicate that the model kept the core of the low-level jet too far to the west during the night and early morning. Thus, the focus of nightime convection back in the Black hills area.
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