Art Douglas wrote yesterday afternoon - OK guys.............dew points in Guaymas and Hermosillo are both in the low 40s!!!!! So this isn't Pacific moisture. Here in Ash Canyon our winds turned to SE late morning and it gradually got cloudy with buildups all directions and lots of virga and a few periods of big drops of rain "T". Clouds are rolling in from the SE. Dew point is up to 44F after being at 30F.
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John Diebolt comments this morning: Classic Gusty/Dusty day on Monday with strong easterly winds persistant through the night keeping temperatures in the low 80s at the airport and mid 80s here at the house west of the Tucson Mountains overnight (85F at 5 AM). TD trends were slowly up through the night. NWS AFD this morning cites dry bias in 00Z TUS sounding as possibly contributing to the sharp reduction in the convective activity in the 00Z NAM for today. Some Southern Region NWS offices are doing 6-hourly balloon launches in support of NHC. So lets hope they dont all have a dry bias like TUS! 00Z NAM also had steady easterly mdt sfc wind flow. I am wondering if downsloping off the higher terrain under a sustained easterly wind regime today might actually work against convection and if the NAM has the resolution built in to pick this up? I seem to remember some active convective day busts due to a sustained easterly sfc wind and downsloping in the past. That might have been deeper into the season, though. Very quick look at the 6Z NAM showed a little more QPF for SE AZ than 0Z. Any thoughts?
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