Future Track of Alex

Above is current NHC forecast for TS/Hurricane Alex, indicating that it would come ashore in Mexico south of Brownsville on Wednesday evening. The GFS and ECMWF are now essentially in agreement on a somewhat similar forecast track (at times during the last few days the two models have had wildly divergent forecasts). Both models indicate the remnant disturbance will move slowly west across central Mexico. However, both models also forecast another episode of strong troughing at 500 mb into the western US. This unusually deep trough forecast by the models keeps the moisture associated with the Alex disturbance to the south of the US/Mexico border, although the ECMWF is much more agressive in the forecast of its northward extent. Thus, we should monitor the progress of Alex, since it has some slight potential to influence the evolution of weather over the Southwest during the Fourth of July weekend.