It's a very warm and actually a bit muggy morning in Tucson. The current Td is up to 56F and precipitable water is around 3 cm. There is a deep southeasterly flow present this morning with the next Pacific trough still affecting only the far western part of Arizona; however, yesterday's WRF forecast for today indicated that the trough would advance this afternoon, pushing the moist air back toward New Mexico. But for now, the dewpoint has been rising steadily since about 5 pm yesterday, when storms to the east, along with a weak, backdoor front from southern Plains, pushed the moist air westward. Phoenix has also experienced rising dewpoints and is at 55F. The visible satellite image above shows that that the debris clouds from last evening's storms have pushed considerably further west and north than they did yesterday. The sounding above indicates that there may still be afternoon CAPE at some lower elevations in southeastern Arizona, bringing the possiblity of sprinkles and microbursts. Thunderstorms are more likely on the mountains, but there will interesting things to watch today, as the dry Pacific air does battle with the moist intrusion. Unfortunately, the Tucson NWS radar remains out of service at this time; perhaps it will come on-line before the end of the day?
It's a very warm and actually a bit muggy morning in Tucson. The current Td is up to 56F and precipitable water is around 3 cm. There is a deep southeasterly flow present this morning with the next Pacific trough still affecting only the far western part of Arizona; however, yesterday's WRF forecast for today indicated that the trough would advance this afternoon, pushing the moist air back toward New Mexico. But for now, the dewpoint has been rising steadily since about 5 pm yesterday, when storms to the east, along with a weak, backdoor front from southern Plains, pushed the moist air westward. Phoenix has also experienced rising dewpoints and is at 55F. The visible satellite image above shows that that the debris clouds from last evening's storms have pushed considerably further west and north than they did yesterday. The sounding above indicates that there may still be afternoon CAPE at some lower elevations in southeastern Arizona, bringing the possiblity of sprinkles and microbursts. Thunderstorms are more likely on the mountains, but there will interesting things to watch today, as the dry Pacific air does battle with the moist intrusion. Unfortunately, the Tucson NWS radar remains out of service at this time; perhaps it will come on-line before the end of the day?
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