Art has shared his seasonal outlook for Jun to Sep for the US - shown above for T and PPT. His outlook is developed by identifying best analog years and examing what happened during those analog years. Art's outlook is considerably more grim than NOAA's official CPC outlook for thhe Southwest and also the Central and Southern Plains (very hot and mostly dry). Art's brief explanation follows.----------------------------------------------------
Bob, you may want to just post the precip and temp for the June-September period and the variables used in the cluster analysis analog program.
The analog forecast is consistent with the end of an El Nino and the start of a strong La Nina event with cold waters off California. Companion drought highs are forecast over the North Pacific, North America and the North Atlantic. There is a small conduit of below normal heights off West Africa supporting an active TC season (~14 storms +/-2storms). The monsoon is grim in all months........maybe a tad-bit better in August with a dry July and September (somewhat a preferred correlation if July is dry then August is wetter and September drier than normal). The temperature forecast is ridiculously hot.
The NCEP CFS model is very similar with a hot dry Mexico and Southwest, but it has a very cool-wet northern tier of states which the analog forecast does not show. Either way the warm AMO, ready to pop La Nina and cold SSTs off the West Coast are a perfect setup for this type of continental drought. Art
VARIABLES CONSIDERED FOR THE JUNE-OCTOBER FORECAST FOR MEXICO
700mb hts
Siberian Alaskan Ridge 2940
Dateline Trough 3055
Hawaiian Ridge 3170
Western Trough 3045 US temps of -6F in the west suggest deeper trof
West Atlantic Trof 3040
SSTs
CNPAC WARM POOL +0.3
SUBTROP SENPAC COLD POOL -0.6
NEPAC COLD POOL -0.7
MEXICO C.A. WARM POOL +0.6
EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC WARM +0.7 Real value +1.2
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WARM +1.0 Real value 1.4
WEST N ATLANTIC COLD POOL -0.7
TEMPERATE N ATLANTIC WARM 1.1
OTHER
OLR 80%
Nino12 0.0
Nino3.4 -0.3
Easter Island 1022.4mb
Bob, you may want to just post the precip and temp for the June-September period and the variables used in the cluster analysis analog program.
The analog forecast is consistent with the end of an El Nino and the start of a strong La Nina event with cold waters off California. Companion drought highs are forecast over the North Pacific, North America and the North Atlantic. There is a small conduit of below normal heights off West Africa supporting an active TC season (~14 storms +/-2storms). The monsoon is grim in all months........maybe a tad-bit better in August with a dry July and September (somewhat a preferred correlation if July is dry then August is wetter and September drier than normal). The temperature forecast is ridiculously hot.
The NCEP CFS model is very similar with a hot dry Mexico and Southwest, but it has a very cool-wet northern tier of states which the analog forecast does not show. Either way the warm AMO, ready to pop La Nina and cold SSTs off the West Coast are a perfect setup for this type of continental drought. Art
VARIABLES CONSIDERED FOR THE JUNE-OCTOBER FORECAST FOR MEXICO
700mb hts
Siberian Alaskan Ridge 2940
Dateline Trough 3055
Hawaiian Ridge 3170
Western Trough 3045 US temps of -6F in the west suggest deeper trof
West Atlantic Trof 3040
SSTs
CNPAC WARM POOL +0.3
SUBTROP SENPAC COLD POOL -0.6
NEPAC COLD POOL -0.7
MEXICO C.A. WARM POOL +0.6
EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC WARM +0.7 Real value +1.2
TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WARM +1.0 Real value 1.4
WEST N ATLANTIC COLD POOL -0.7
TEMPERATE N ATLANTIC WARM 1.1
OTHER
OLR 80%
Nino12 0.0
Nino3.4 -0.3
Easter Island 1022.4mb
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