Tropical Depression One (now Tropical Storm Alex - Saturday morning June 26th)) has finally formed in the Caribbean. Visible image shown at top and the NHC forecast for One shown at bottom. From an earlier post this week that noted that ECMWF was forecasting this (note that GFS is still struggling to capture this feature today while NAM forecasts fairly strong development by 84-hours!):---------------------------------------------------------
I also note that the ECMWF forecast from last evening (0000 UTC 21 Jun 2010) is forecasting that a tropical storm or hurricane will be moving into the Gulf of Mexico at 168 hours. If this threat were to actually materialize it would trigger a media hurricane, in addition to the storm's impact on the industrial disaster situation in the Gulf.
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