Comments on Summer Outlook and Prospects

Several readers have left comments of various types since Art Douglas' summer outlook was posted. I am reposting the comments here - in reverse time order - to consolidate them and make more visible.
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John Diebolt has left a new comment on your post "Art Douglas Shares His Summer Outlook": I looked at the NWS Site for monsoon data for Tucson and the analog years mentioned on the map (2005, 2001, 1998 and 1980). The Monsoon rain totals for those years in Tucson were 5.30" in 2005, a grim 2.42" in 2001, a slightly above average 6.86" in 1998 and slightly above average 6.89" in 1980. (6.06" is listed as average). The above average designations can of course be a misnomer due to the nature of the summer thunderstorm seasons. One storm can dump several inches of rain on one or two spots and when one of those is the official reporting station the total is not representative of the area. Perusing this data, since 2000, there have only been 3 years with an official total above the 6.06" average (2003-6.70"), (2006-10.20"), (2007-6.57"). Using the NWS Standard set of 1971-2000 there have been only 17 seasons with above average rainfall. 7 of those 30 years had rainfall less than half of the average. Since we all know Monsoon refers to a seasonal change in atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns, at what point would the summertime pattern change we undergo become so weak, erratic and ill defined to no longer qualify..at least in this part of North America? I for one, hold out hope, with all due respect to Art, that 2010 does not turn out to be another bust. With the spectre of a La Nina and its attendant dearth of winter rainfall looming ahead, we could be looking at a perfect storm of sorts in terms of drought at least. It could be very grim indeed if we have to wait until Monsoon Season 2011 for our next opportunity to get substantial and widespread rains.
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Jim Means of Alpine, CA wrote:

I'm ready for some storms too, but I realize now I have to have 

patience. I've recently done a study of monsoon onset in the Southern California deserts (which I hope to publish if my adviser ever reads it and gets back to me), where I looked at monsoon onset 

as determined from seven years of GPS precipitable water data, using

 a criterion defined by Zeng and Lu.  For 25 sites I found that the 

average onset day only varied by one day--it was either July 14 or 

15 at all the sites.  The day of monsoon retreat varied widely among

 the sites, although it was generally later farther south and east 

(you might have guessed that).

So I'm trying not to get too anxious for storms around here until 

mid-July.  SST in the northern Gulf still looks too low also.http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/contour/gulfcalf.c.gif
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Pat Holbrook - currently watching from Boise, Idaho, wrote: 

Bob...some fits and starts but really don't see much in the way of 

the monsoon arriving before Jul 10th...way too much westerlies. 

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Art Douglas wrote this morning saturday 26 June (edited slight since

 I can't show figures):

I've just compared the 0Z runs from the ECMWF and GFS.  How could 

they be that much different in northern Mexico?  ECMWF brings Alex 

into NE Mexico (per NHC track this morning) and then lets the 

monsoon go crazy!  GFS seems to get lost and moves the system into 

the central Gulf.  So, 4" for Yecora or 0".............Glad I don't 

have to be forecasting this line up.