The heavy anvil debris that covered the state yesterday morning (see previous post) rapidly dissipated leaving nearly clear skies over the entire state during the afternoon. The visible satellite image at 4:45 pm MST (top) captures only a few cumulus in the far north-central part of Arizona. The IR image at same time (bottom) indicates considerable thunderstorm activity (shifted south and east relative to Sunday afternoon) over northern Mexico, southeast New Mexico, and far west Texas. High temperature here in Tucson has been 106F the last two days.----------------------------------------------------------------
The global forecast models indicate a substantial change underway, as a cool trough at 500 mb digs in over the West through the weekend. The intense 500 mb anticyclone over Arizona maximized on Saturday afternoon and Sunday with heights around 5960m! Heights at Tucson had dropped off to 5920m yesterday evening, as the high weakened and shifted south and southwest - impacted by both the troughing in the northwest US and the weak upper-tropospheric low that has been drifting westward over south Texas. The ECMWF is fairly aggressive with the 500 mb trough, dropping heights over Tucson briefly to around 5760m on Saturday (12 June) - a change of around 200m and a definite moderating of the heat.
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