New Look Ahead To Monday Morning

First, the tropical disturbance, mentioned a couple of posts ago, is moving into Mexico with several strong clusters of thunderstorms and heavy rains. The NHC currently outlooks only a slight chance of tropical storm development.

                           

Earlier I contrasted the large difference between the ECMWF and GFS 500 mb forecasts at 168-hours valid 12 UTC next Monday. Here is a new look at both models at 96 hours, valid at same time as earlier post. The ECMWF is similar to the earlier forecast (both above) but is now forecasting an open and more progressive short wave.

The GFS (bottom two panels, valid at same times as ECMWF graphics) has trended substantially toward the ECMWF 168-h forecast and deepened the short wave over the West. Heights in the GFS are still somewhat higher than in the ECMWF forecasts, and the GFS is considerably faster with the wave's movement to the east.

So another one for the ECMWF at 168 hours.