Quite a difference between the ECMWF and GFS forecasts for 500 mb out at 168-h, i.e., 12 UTC on May 12th. Heights over northern Arizona are around 5580m in the ECMWF forecast (above), which has a large, closed cyclone centered over the western U.S. The GFS (below) forecasts heights over northern Arizona to be around 5780m (200m higher than ECMWF), with only a small closed cyclone over Washington and west to northwesterly flow over the rest of the West. Will follow this during coming week to see how the models evolve wrt this large difference at 168 hours.
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