Above is the experimental run that Mike Luethold did using a lightning prediction algorithm in the WRF model (all lightning flashes are forecast). Graphic below shows all cloud-to-ground flashes detected during the past 24 hours, ending at 5 am MST this morning - the algorithm appears to have verified quite reasonably based on yesterday's CGs. Note also that early morning thunderstorms are producing lightning up in the White Mountains.
This morning the run of the early WRF-NAM appears to have crashed. Above shows forecast of composite radar valid at 5 pm tomorrow (Saturday, May 24th) from the WRF-GFS. The GFS version keeps all storm activity today far to the north-northeast and to the west of the Tucson area. The GFS version did forecast the early morning storm activity to the north accurately. Below is the WRF-GFS forecast of total rainfall through 11 pm MST on Sunday night - meaningful rain on the ground is only forecast up in the Whites and Rim Country. Will check the new morning runs of the WRF a bit later today.
No comments:
Post a Comment