WRF MORE AGRESSIVE RE SHOWERS TOMORROW

First - I am trying to bring up a new Windows 7 PC and am struggling a bit. This is my first attempt to do a blog post using the new system. I seem to be able to use the new "snip" tool to capture more of the WRF forecast frames and show the color bars - which is a nice improvement!

The above graphic is the WRF-NAM forecast from the 12 UTC run this morning of PW valid at 11 am MST tomorrow morning (Thursday the 29th), with the forecast made on the 5.4 km grid. The model forecasts precipitable water associated with Amanda moving northward and then breaching Baja to advect into Arizona. The forecast below is the same as above but on the 1.8 km grid - it forecasts PW to get a bit above an inch tomorrow over parts of Pima and Pinal Counties - this would be the highest PW value in quite some time.

The MIMIC total PW blended analysis for noon today is shown above from CIMSS, Univ. of Wisconsin - note the broad plume of higher PW that has been advecting northward, west of Baja, from what is now TS Amanda.

In response to the increased moisture and development of some CAPE in the model fields, the morning WRF-NAM forecasts several rounds of light showers and thunderstorms across southeastern Arizona tomorrow. The above is the forecast of composite radar echoes valid at 2 pm MST tomorrow afternoon. The forecast below is for total rainfall through 11 pm tomorrow night  - again, the most aggressive forecast from the WRF for quite some time.