Heat has returned to Arizona for next several days. High in Tucson on Memorial day jumped up to 97 F - NWS forecast for today is 101 F at the airport and 105 F tomorrow. The visible satellite image above is from 7:30 am MST today, Tuesday, May 27th. The smoke plume from the Slide wildfire in Oak Creek Canyon is at the center of the image. This fire is 25 percent contained as per the morning incident briefing. Also of interest is the bright white snow cover over the Colorado Rockies.
The NHC 8 am MST time discussions say that Amanda is still a Category 3 hurricane, although its visual appearance this morning (above) is not very impressive. The latest forecast indicates Amanda weakening and moving north-northeastward until Friday, when the low-level circulation is forecast to detach from the midlevel vorticity - the low-level circulation is then forecast to move southwestward.
Models indicate some moisture into Arizona Wednesday night and Thursday, but not impressive amounts. The early WRF-NAM forecast from Atmo indicates widespread, but light showers over Arizona on Thursday. The model forecast of rain on the ground, valid through 11 pm Thursday night, indicates very light amounts
Finally, I couldn't resist showing the global models forecasts for 500 mb valid out at 10-days (i.e., 00 UTC on 6 June). The ECMWF is above, while the GFS is below. While GFS forecasts a 588 dm anticyclone to be centered west of Baja, the ECMWF builds the high northward and forecasts a 594 dm anticyclone over west Texas. Summer definitely moving northward, especially in the European model forecasts. If this forecast verifies, that Colorado snow cover will be rushing down the streams and rivers.
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