This morning there is a band of showers from south-to-north across east-central Pima County -These are moving toward the north and shifting slowly eastward. View from Kitt Peak to south a bit after 7 am MST shows some of the shower activity.
The early WRF-NAM this morning has decreased considerably in the amount of shower it is forecasting for today. Rainfall forecast through midnight tonight is shown above. The Kitt Peak webcam seems to indicate heavier showers than the model forecast would indicate, so best course for today may well be between yesterday's WRF and this morning's.
Main reason for the decrease seems to be that less CAPE is forecast for this afternoon - forecast below is CAPE valid at 5 pm MST today (Thursday, May 29th). Amounts of CAPE in the forecast are minimal to none. Upper-level winds this morning display considerable difluence over eastern Arizona, so there will be a large-scale field of vertical motion moving across our area during the day.
Finally, the WRF-NAM forecast of the skew-T for TUS valid at 5 pm this afternoon is shown below - certainly not much to say about it. It does have a deep and dry boundary layer, so some light showers (and/or virga) could produce locally gusty winds. And so it goes as May gradually comes to an end,
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