Cloudless, deep blue skies again this morning.
At 500 mb the closed low continues off to southwest of San Diego (12 UTC 500 mb analysis above and 1230 UTC IR satellite image below).
But, forecast models continue to bring this system estward as an open trough tonight and tomorrow with high chanes of rainfall here in the metro area. The morning forecast from the NWS above, and total precipitation forecasts (from the 06 UTC WRF-GFS and WRF-NAM) below. Note that the GFS version has a somewhat ominous, extended, significant min area just to southwest of airport.
The QPF amounts continue to average around half an inch in the ensemble systems. Looking forward to this event, since the last measurable rain here at house was exactly a month ago.
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