Another beautiful morning, with just a bit of high cloudiness to the north. Winds this morning along the Rillito were from the east with some gusts to 20 or 25 mph - putting a bit of chill into the air.
Models continue to forecast a closed low from west of Baja moving across Arizona (GFS forecast above from 09 UTC run is valid at 12 UTC on Thursday morningthe 10th). This system brings some moisture with it, and morning forecasts are for measureable rain over the metro area Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Plumes for QPF above are from the 09 UTC SREF forecasts at the SPC web page. Grid lines are at 0.20" intervals and average amount forecast is right at 0.04". Below is morning forecast graphic from the TUS NWS. And bottom is QPF forecast from this morning's 12 UTC GFS run for total rainfall through 12 UTC on December 11th. If the forecasts verify, this would be the first significant rain since the end of August.
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