Another Down Day

View this morning at a bit after 5:00 am MST, looking toward Redington Pass.

Plot of detected CG flashes through 0703 UTC last night (above from Atmo and Vaisala) shows only thunderstorm activity in eastern Pima County was occurring to northeast and east of the Catalinas and Rincons. Another day with no rain here.

Alert plots here (above and below) are for three-day rainfall ending at 6:00 am today - very dry across most of our region. Note that 0.39" at site north of "Tucson" appears to be picking up some sprinkler water each day, and site near Mescal appears suspect also.

This morning's 500 mb analysis (above from SPC) shows that the anticyclone center has shifted to near the Four Corners, with light winds and a pocket of warm air in our area. The morning sounding (below) shows light, mostly easterly winds through the entire troposphere. There four or five old boundary layers between the surface and 400 mb. There is some CAPE, but substantial heating will be needed to break through the capping warm air.

For contrast, here are two WRF forecasts from Atmo for rainfall through 6:00 am tomorrow morning - forecast above is from 12 UTC WRF RR, and that below is from the 09 UTC WRF HRRR - forecasts are quite different - guess I'll pull for RR version.

Current seven-day for[e]cast from the NWS is shown at bottom.