View looking toward the Rincons at about 4:50 am MST this morning - note Jupiter in upper right.
Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0903 UTC early this morning. - note that eastern Pima County was devoid of activity, except for one, isolated storm near the airport. There were only eight rain reports across the entire ALERT network through 8:30 am this morning (below). The heavy amount near the airport fell from the brief thunderstorm around 5:00 pm. Nothing here at the house yesterday.
The anticyclone at 500 mb this morning (above from SPC) is very elongated west-to-east and curves from southwestern Arizona to east Texas. The morning upper-air sounding (below - also from SPC) shows increased PW, considerable BL CAPE, and variable winds aloft with speeds up to around 20 kts. Appears that steering flow for any storms later today would be toward the north.
The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR (above - from Atmo) forecasts considerable rain across eastern Pima County through midnight tonight. Current NWS forecast for the airport is shown below.
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