View toward Redington Pass at 5:25 am this morning.
Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending 0733 UTC (above, from Atmo and Vaisala) shows a fairly large hole covering most of metro area and extending south into Santa Cruz County. ALERT observations for 24-hours ending 7:00 am this morning (below) shows rainfall mostly avoided the metro area. Yesterday's WRF forecast did not verify well, nor did the NWS forecast POPs and Flash Flood Watch (see previous post). There was rumbling thunder here in 4 to 5 pm time-frame, but only a brief sprinkle.
At 500 mb this morning (above) the anticyclone is centered over Oklahoma, with much of Arizona under the influence of the western US trough. The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (below) appears considerably more favorable for deep convection than did yesterday's - see previous post. Precipitable water and CAPE are both high, and winds southerly to southwesterly.
The GEFS plumes for TUS (from the 06 UTC runs - above) indicate chances for light showers through the Fourth, but overall forecast a fairly quiet week. The 06 UTC GFS, however, forecasts an active second week in July (below) with heavy rainfall across southeastern Arizona.
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