Morning view at 5:40 am MST looking toward Rincons and Redington Pass.
Plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0803 UTC last night (above from Atmo and Vaisala) shows almost no activity across all of Arizona, except for small cluster of storms north of GoC. Skies were clear and dry here at the house.
The 500 mb analysis this morning (above from SPC) shows a large, amorphous anticyclone centered around southern Arkansas. The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (below, also from SPC) is not very impressive, requiring deep heating to release its CAPE. Winds aloft are mostly southerly above 850 mb with some speeds up to around 25 kt.
While I don't find the sounding impressive, all the forecasts are indicating showers this evening. Plumes above for QPF at the airport from the 06 UTC runs average about a half an inch this evening. The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR (below) forecasts rainfall across all of the eastern half of Pima county by midnight tonight. The latest NWS forecast (bottom) indicates POPs of 40 to 50 percent at the airport this evening. Note also the advisory for blowing dust. Will be interesting to watch what actually happens.
No comments:
Post a Comment