View toward the Catalinas at 7:00 am MST this morning shows very hazy skies.
Yesterday was very suppressed over southeastern Arizona - see plot of detected CG flashes for 24-hours ending at 0735 UTC last night (above, from Atmo and Vaisala). There were no reports of rainfall across the entire ALERT network.
At 500 mb this morning (above from SPC) the large anticyclone appears to have two circulation centers - one over northwest Arizona and the other over southern Idaho. The morning sounding (below - also from SPC) shows that PW has decreased to about an inch and a quarter; there is a deep, old boundary layer; and only a sliver of mixed layer CAPE. Winds aloft are northerly to easterly at around 20 kts above 600 mb.
However, the SPC has outlooked slight chances for severe thunderstorms today over southern Arizona (above). The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR (below) forecasts heavy rains across the metro area through midnight tonight.
The morning forecast (above from the National Weather Service Forecast Office) indicates high POPs through Friday for the airport, along with gusty winds and blowing dust this afternoon and evening. The graphic below provides an estimate of the timing for the forecast storms.
It will be interesting to watch what transpires later today. I am a bit of a doubter, based on the poor thermodynamics indicated in the morning sounding.
No comments:
Post a Comment