Pre-sunrise view of the Rincons this morning at about 5:45 am MST.
Scattered rains across the ALERT area (above and below, through 7:00 am this morning) mostly avoided the main parts of the metro area. There was nothing here, but TUS had thunder with gusts to 41mph and a Trace with DM reporting thunder, gusts to 38 mph and 0.32". Atmo noted gusts to 37 mph, but reported no rain.
At 500 mb (12 UTC analysis above from SPC) shows there is an inverted trough that is now to our west. The morning TWC/TUS sounding (below, also from SPC) is very moist with significant CAPE. But considerable lifting will be needed for storms to develop because of the warm air aloft around 700 mb. Winds aloft are generally easterly, with some speeds around 20 kts. Storms should again move toward the west.
Current forecast from the NWS TUS office (below) indicates POPs that are around climatological values through Friday.
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