View toward the eastern Catalinas at 6:00 am MST this morning.
Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala, through 0733 UTC last night) indicates some scattered thunderstorm activity in eastern Pima County yesterday, mostly over and near the mountains. The ALERT observations below (through 7:00 am this morning) tell the same story. The airport and DM reported thunder but no rain. No rain here or at Atmo. There may have been thunder here, but I did not hear it.
The 500 mb analysis (above, from SPC) this morning shows light winds across the Southwest, with the anticyclone center far to the north over Idaho. The morning sounding (below, also from SPC) has about an inch of PW and little to no CAPE. Winds are light and variable below 300 mb. I would not expect low elevation storms with this sounding, barring an increase in PW during the day (which is not forecast by models).
However, both the 12 UTC WRF-HRRR (above through midnight) and the NWS (current forecast below) disagree and forecast chances for storm at lower elevations and the airport. So, I will be interested to see what happens later today and this evening.
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