View looking toward the Rincons at 6:00 am this morning.
TS Carlotta in the west Pacific has become a hurricane. The storm is at 115 W and 18.5 N and is moving west far from land.
Plot of detected CG flashes through 0803 UTC last night (above, from Atmo and Visala) shows that storms stayed to northeast and southwest of eastern Pima County, as indicated by yesterday's 12 UTC WRF-HRRR (see previous post).
Only a few reports of light rainfall in the ALERT network for 24-hours ending at 7:30 am this morning (above and below).
The huge 500 mb anticyclone is now centered near the Four Corners, with southeasterly winds over most of Arizona. Note the 6,000 m height reported at Grand Junction, Colorado!
The morning sounding from TWC/TUS (above) is very moist and posses considerable CAPE - one of the better soundings from last week or two. Winds aloft are southeasterly 15 to 20 kts - alas, there is drier air to our southeast.
The 06 UTC GEFS plumes for QPF at the airport (above) show chances for light showers today, and then activity ramps up over the weekend into next week.
The 12 UTC WRF-HRRR forecast from Atmo today (above - valid through midnight tonight) has light rainfall across much of eastern Pima County. Current forecast from NWS TUS (below) indicates essentially climatological POPs for today and tomorrow.
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