Friday, August 06, 2021

Continued Chances For Showers

Hazy skies over Tucson this morning. The plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala - below) for 24 hours ending at 1103 UTC (4:03 MST) this morning indicates isolated thunderstorms near Redington Pass and south end of Rincons near I-10. All-in-all, a fairly suppressed day for Arizona.

I found four sites that reported measurable rainfall for 24 hours ending at 8:00 am - 2 along the foothills north of here and 2 along I-10 near the CG activity (amounts ranged 0.01 to 0.20").

The morning 500 mb analysis (above from Univ. of Wyoming web page) shows that the anticyclone has shifted considerably northeastward and is centered over the White Mountains and temperatures continue quite warm at -4 to -6 C. The morning TUS/TWC sounding (below, also from Wyoming) shows limited CAPE  - lifted parcel is about what I estimate for this afternoon.

I looked quickly at the early WRF runs and most have afternoon storms in eastern Pima County - some runs keep storms south of main metro area. But the  09 UTC WRF-RR forecast (below valid at 7:00 PM) really focused heavy storms right on the metro area!

Current NWS forecast products and graphics shown below for today and through the weekend.

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