Monday, August 09, 2021

First August Rain Here



Heavy clouds over Tucson area this morning, following nighttime and early morning showers.

Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala) for 24 hours ending at 7:43 am MST this morning (below) indicates scattered thunderstorms over much of southeast Arizona. Some showers occurred before midnight and some after - here at house we managed 0.09" a bit after 3:00 am. Ongoing storms after sunrise were mostly affecting Pinal County.


Rainfall reports of 0.04" and more from the ALERT network for 24 hours ending at 7:30 am this morning. Looks like areal coverage was 50 to 60 percent. Heaviest amounts occured over south portion of network and on Mt. Lemmon.


The 700 mb analysis (above, from Univ. of Wyoming weather page) shows a weak trough curving from northern end of GoC across Arizona and New mexico to the northern border of the Texas Panhandle. But in the upper troposphere (300 mb chart below, from SPC) the pattern is dominated by a large anticyclone over northern Mexico, with no hint of the lower trough.


Morning TUS/TWC sounding plot (above from SPC) shows classic post-showers onion shape, with considerable cooling apparent below about 800 mb.  The morning cloud cover will likely keep temperatures cool and suppress surface based convection today, but showers from the saturated atmosphere above 600 mb are possible.

Below is 06 UTC GFS forecast of total rainfall through midnight next Sunday - certainly a very wet forecast for Arizona and New Mexico!



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