Sunday, August 01, 2021

Down Day Yesterday

After two days with widespread storms and rain, yesterday was a down day for eastern Pima County. Plot of detected CG flashes (below from Atmo and Vaisala) through midnight last last night indicates a small storm down on the Santa Ritas and a larger storm north of the Catalinas.

Today PW is still holding high across southern Arizona - as per TPW plot for 13 UTC this morning, above.

The morning 300 mb chart (above from SPC) shows a huge ridge dominating northwestern Mexico, and the western portions of the US and Canada. 

The TUS/TWC sounding plot for this morning (above - also from SPC) indicates substantial CAPE and high precipitable water. Sounding looks promising, but models all forecast little activity for our area, due probably to large scale subsidence in the middle levels. So build-ups today mainly on the higher elevations.

Plumes below for QPF at the airport, from the 06 UTC GEFS runs, indicate a dry week, but with increasing chances for rainfall by Friday. Note that the operational GFS (blue) goes a bit wild and is a distinct "high" outlier.

No comments:

Post a Comment