Nice pre-sunrise color over the eastern Catalinas this morning.
ALERT rainfall observations (above and below for 24 hours ending at 8:00 am MST this morning. Looks like about 60 to 70 percent areal coverage. Here at house we had a light shower around 6:30 pm that produced 0.01". Note heavy amounts up around Mt. Lemmon.
The 500 mb level (above for 12 UTC this morning) is still dominated by light winds and weak height gradients over the Southwest. There is some hint of a shortwave across northern Sonora that will affect southeast Arizona later today.
The morning TUS/TWC sounding (below) remains moist with 1.64" of PW - Empalme to our south on the GoC has 2.40"! Map of TPW for 14 UTC (second below) shows very high PW has pushed northward all the way to Las Vegas area. Here in southeast Arizona there is still a noticeable gradient between moist air to our west and drier air to our east - however winds are light and strongest convergence will again be along outflows. There is still an inversion way up at 300 mb, but model forecasts weaken this feature by afternoon.
The 06 UTC plumes for QPF at the airport (above) forecast a significant event for later today through tomorrow - although range of amounts is substantial (around two inches), and the operational GFS is a dry outlier for this period.
Forecast below is for composite radar echoes valid at 7:30 pm this evening, with strong echoes covering southeast Arizona. The NWS morning forecast is shown at bottom. Should be an interesting day!
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