More Rain Before End Of August?

View of the Catalinas and clear skies from mid-town at 7:55 am MST this morning. 

Plot of detected CG flashes (below) for 24-hours ending about 2:00 am this morning indicates quite a bit of thunderstorm activity yesterday over the southeastern corner of Arizona. No storms in Pima County, but observations from the airport indicate that an outflow from the activity to our southeast moved across the metro area before 9:00 pm last evening, jumping the dewpoints back into the 60s. Even with the moisture increase there is little CAPE this morning.

At 500 mb this morning (above) a huge ridge and anticyclone dominates much of the US, GoM, and northern Mexico.

Plumes for CAPE (from the 06 UTC GEFS runs - above) show amounts increasing by the weekend - but the spread becomes large with very noisy results from the ensemble models. Same is true for QPF at the airport - note that operational GFS (blue) is a very wet outlier wrt to most of the runs. Precipitation amounts by the end of August range from zero to an inch and a quarter - so the question of more August rain has no clear answer at this time. However, the GFS (the blue outlier) forecasts significant rain (bottom and plumes above).