Sunday, August 08, 2021

Quick Look Sunday Morning

Sunrise this morning at Tucson (above) and at San Simon (bottom).

There was a very large MCS south of the border, over northeastern Sonora last evening. An outflow from that system moved through Tucson around 10 to 11 pm MST last evening, and tempeatures in southeast Arizona are a bit cooler with south winds this morning.

At 500 mb (above, from Univ. of Wyoming weather page) this morning the pattern over the Southwest is chaotic, but there is an inverted trough across southwest New Mexico and northwestern Mexico that is forecast to move across our area later today. 

The morning sounding from TUS/TWC (below, from SPC) continues to have a weak and chopped up wind profile below 300 mb. PW is at 1.42 inches and there is considerable, potential CAPE.

The 06 UTC run of the WRF-GFS at Atmo forecasts significant thunderstorm activity for eastern Pima County at 7:00 pm this evening (above), as well as strong outflows and significant rainfall through midnight for for much of the same area (below). Perhaps the first rain here at house for August?

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