Tuesday, August 03, 2021

Heavy Storms Last Evening

Clear skies over the Catalinas this morning, after heavy storms moved across the east parts of the metro last evening. Plot of detected CG flashes (from Atmo and Vaisala - below) is for 24 hours ending at 0743 UTC (12:43 am MST). Note the red and orange clusters over eastern edge of Pima County.

Radar from 7:39 pm shows the two storm cells which moved from north to south. ALERT reports (below) indicate locally heavy amounts - one site had nearly three inches of rain. The Rillito was running again this morning.

At 500 mb this morning the anticyclone is in a nasty position to our west, near Yuma. The ridge extends northward into western Canada, and there are several embedded, weak troughs. The morning sounding from TUS/TWC (below) is still moist with some CAPE, but with apparent subsidence below 250 mb putting a strong cap on things at 500 mb.

Forecast from the 06 UTC GEFS runs shows PW crashing during next 24 hours, but recovering fairly quickly - this is caused by a forecast disturbance approaching the south end of Baja by end of the week. The plumes for QPF at the airport rebound abruptly for the weekend, but with a huge spread of almost two inches. Meanwhile we'll have a bit of drying, but with temperatures rebounding into the 105 to 110 F range. Note that the NWS has an excessive heat warning issued for tomorrow.

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