An isolated storm at west end of Catalinas last evening (above) produced considerable thunder here at the house. There was a bit of wind also, but no rain.
Most of the ALERT network was also dry (above and below) for the 24 hours ending at 8:30 am MST this morning. Only 17 sites had 0.04" or more, and those were mostly in and near the Catalinas. It was basically a down day for lower elevations.
The 500 mb chart (above) remains chaotic over the Southwest, with the most distinct feature being the circulation of now Tropical Storm Ida, whose impacts were very severe as per reports from Louisiana on national news this morning.
The TUS/TWC sounding is quite a mess this morning (below). There is little residual BL, winds are light and variable below 350 mb, and there is just a sliver of CAPE for the layer below 700 mb. I would expect storms at higher elevations again today and that they will have trouble moving into lower elevations.
Although Nora has fizzled, her remnant circulation at 500 mb appears to continue moving in our direction, as a trough develops along the west coast. These features interact and produce significant precipitation across Arizona through mid-week - forecast above from 06 UTC GFS shows accumulated precipitation through 11:00 pm Wednesday night. The Tucson NWS has issued a Flash Flood Watch for tomorrow into Wednesday night - details below.
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